Maritime Freight in 2025 and 2026: Review of a Turbulent Year and Trends to Watch

The maritime transport industry is going through an era of permanent polycrisis. Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, alliance restructuring, environmental regulatory shock: the factors that dictate the evolution of maritime freight no longer follow classic economic cycles. While 2025 demonstrated unexpected resilience in the face of fragmented demand, 2026 is shaping up as a turning point year. Shippers, freight forwarders and industrialists must navigate between structural overcapacity weighing on rates and environmental surcharges increasing costs. Here is the 2025 review and 2026 outlook for maritime freight, analyzed to help you anticipate.

Maritime freight in 2025, between resilience and fragmentation

2025 was supposed to be the year of slowdown. It ultimately surprised with the solidity of containerized demand, driven by anticipation phenomena and a redistribution of global commercial flows.

Global demand stronger than expected

Containerized volumes exceeded forecasts on most major corridors. On the Asia-Europe axis, growth reached 5 to 6%, while the transpacific (Asia-USA) declined by only 3 to 4%, far below the 15% decline anticipated by analysts. Intra-Asia grew by 6 to 8%, and the transatlantic posted an increase of 1% where a decline of 5 to 10% was expected.

Several factors explain this resistance. Shippers took advantage of lulls to build stocks, anticipating duty increases imposed by the Trump administration and freight rate volatility. The structural increase in American customs duties, estimated at 18.5%, pushed many importers to accelerate their orders. China, faced with a slowdown in exports to the United States, redirected its flows. Its exports to the European Union grew by 15%, those to Southeast Asia by 8%. The overall growth of Chinese container shipments reached 5.24% over the first eleven months of the year.

In France, freight traffic in major metropolitan commercial ports grew for the third consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2025, reaching 71.2 million tonnes.

How maritime alliances have been restructured

February 2025 marked the end of the 2M alliance between Maersk and MSC, giving rise to a new competitive landscape that redefines freight purchasing strategies.

The Gemini Cooperation, which brings together Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, represents 21.5% market share. Its strategy is based on reliability through dedicated hubs. The stated objective of 90% punctuality was achieved until summer, before stabilizing between 60 and 80%, a level nonetheless higher than the 50 to 55% previously observed in the sector.

The Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen) maintains the largest market share at 29.3%. It maintains extensive geographic coverage and direct services, an advantage for shippers who prioritize rotation diversity.

MSC, now operating standalone, holds 21.3% of global capacity. The world's largest shipping company pursues an aggressive cost compression strategy and continues a policy of acquiring port terminals to secure its operations. For freight buyers, the arbitrage now takes place between service reliability (Gemini), geographic coverage (Ocean Alliance) and price competitiveness (MSC).

What are the prospects for freight rates in 2026?

While 2025 held up on the demand side, the question of freight rates for 2026 arises with new acuteness. The tariff evolution will be marked by high initial volatility, followed by a structural downward trend under the effect of two opposing forces: capacity surplus and geopolitical uncertainties around the Suez Canal.

Overcapacity weighs on rates

Maritime Strategies International forecasts global fleet growth of 3.5% in 2026, while demand would grow by only 2%. Continuous deliveries of mega container ships, ordered during the post-Covid boom years, feed a capacity surplus that is becoming entrenched. Several million additional TEUs are still to be integrated into the fleet during the year. This structural overcapacity constitutes the main factor of pressure on containerized freight rates.

The Containerized Freight Index illustrates this trend. It stood at 1,316 points in early February 2026, down 20.50% over the last month and 35.63% over one year. CMA CGM openly anticipates a difficult 2026 for the sector, between overcapacity and falling demand. BIMCO projects a significant decline in freight rates, while the National Retail Federation anticipates a decline in volumes of 8 to 16% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. Analysts at Sea-Intelligence confirm this trajectory: the record volumes of 2025 were artificially advanced by front-loading by importers, exposing the market to a backlash in 2026.

For shippers and freight forwarders, this favorable balance of power translates into increased bargaining power in tenders. Annual contract rates should reflect this downward pressure, offering a window of opportunity to renegotiate transport conditions. Carriers nevertheless have a proven lever to limit rate erosion: blank sailings, these targeted route cancellations that allow capacity to be withdrawn from the market. Their proactive management around Chinese New Year helped maintain artificial tension on rates in the first quarter of 2026.

The return via Suez could change things

Since late 2023, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have forced most shipping companies to reroute their vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. This route, 10 to 14 days longer, absorbed approximately 10% of global fleet capacity, temporarily masking overcapacity.

The Suez Canal, through which 12% of global trade flows, is beginning to see a gradual return of traffic. The last vessel attacked by the Houthis dates back to September 29, 2025. CMA CGM restored its MEDEX and INDAMEX services via Suez in January 2026. Maersk transited its first vessel since early 2024 through the canal on December 19, 2025.

Traffic remains 60% below 2023 levels, despite more than 100 days without an attack. Shipping companies carry out case-by-case risk assessments. Caution prevails, as the Houthis' suspension of operations remains conditional on the situation in Gaza. If the return to normalcy is confirmed in the second half of 2026, the influx of capacity on Asia-Europe routes could strongly accentuate downward pressure on freight rates.

2026 regulations: the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime shock

Beyond supply/demand dynamics, 2026 marks a major regulatory turning point. Two European mechanisms are entering full application and directly impact the freight cost structure, with immediate consequences for any company that imports or exports through European ports.

EU ETS moves to 100% and integrates new gases

Since January 1, 2026, the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) covers 100% of CO2 emissions on routes involving European ports, compared to 70% in 2025 and 40% in 2024. The scope is extended to methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), penalizing vessels running on LNG and heavy fuel oils.

The financial impact is immediately felt in surcharges. Most shipping companies raised their emissions surcharges (EMS/ESS) by 40 to 50% from the first quarter of 2026. On the Asia-Northern Europe corridor, the surcharge rose from approximately $114 to $168 per FEU. Hapag-Lloyd confirmed a 45% increase in its ETS surcharge. At sector level, the cost of compliance with the EU ETS system could reach $9.1 billion in 2026, according to Hecla Emissions Management.

The European carbon price is expected between €60 and €150 in 2026 according to Deutsche Bank, depending on market conditions. ETS surcharges now represent up to 12% of maritime transport costs.

A point of vigilance for shippers: transparency of ETS surcharges varies greatly between shipping companies. An analysis by Transport & Environment highlighted significant disparities, with some operators charging beyond the actual carbon cost.

FuelEU Maritime penalties come into play

Alongside the EU ETS, the FuelEU Maritime regulation requires a 2% reduction in the carbon intensity of vessels from 2025. Any failure to meet this objective triggers a penalty of €2,400 per tonne of non-compliant fuel equivalent. This regulation targets the quality of fuels used, complementing the EU ETS which covers the overall volume of emissions. Together, these two mechanisms form an unprecedented coercive framework for the sector.

This double constraint, nicknamed the "regulatory vice", affects the entire logistics chain. Carriers pass on these costs through surcharges, freight forwarders must integrate these variables into their quotes, and shippers see their transport budget increase. The projection for the first quarter of 2026 indicates an overall increase in environmental surcharges of 40 to 50%, across all components. For professionals managing transport tenders, it becomes essential to distinguish the different surcharge components (base freight, BAF, EMS, ESS) in order to compare offers on a homogeneous basis.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has also adopted its Net-Zero framework, with a target of reducing CO2 emissions from vessels by 80% by 2050. While this deadline may seem distant, intermediate milestones are multiplying and the regulatory trajectory is clearly set. Companies that integrate this dimension into their supply chain strategy today are gaining a head start.

Digitalization and cybersecurity in maritime transport

While freight rates fall and environmental surcharges rise, another front is unfolding: that of digitalization. Artificial intelligence is establishing itself as a pillar of competitiveness in the maritime supply chain. The gains are measurable: in Marseille-Fos, real-time coordination via the Channel 5 system reduced average call time by 15% and increased overall productivity by 15%. In Rotterdam, optimization of truck routes and container stacking enabled a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions.

This growing digitalization is accompanied by increased vulnerability. According to European data, 81.1% of cyber incidents in the EU are linked to ransomware. More than 80% of attacks now use AI for social engineering-type fraud, making detection more difficult. Operational systems (OT) of ports are directly targeted: 18.2% of attacks target cranes, vessels and port infrastructure, with malware such as VoltRuptor capable of disrupting production itself.

For freight forwarders and shippers, this challenge is twofold. Digital tools improve visibility and responsiveness, but any service interruption linked to a cyber incident can paralyze an entire logistics chain. Investment in information system security is becoming as strategic as freight rate negotiation. France has indeed planned €570 million within the France 2030 plan to accelerate digitalization and decarbonization of the transport sector, a strong signal for players wishing to modernize their processes.

How to anticipate these developments in your operations?

Faced with alliance restructuring, rate volatility and the EU ETS regulatory shock, international trade professionals need tools offering visibility and responsiveness on their operations. The growing complexity of maritime freight is directly reflected in customs formalities: new surcharges to integrate into clearance calculations, changes in trade routes that modify applicable customs regimes, multiplication of controls linked to environmental compliance.

For freight forwarders, carriers and industrialists who import or export, mastery of customs clearance becomes a genuine performance lever. In an environment where surcharges multiply and cost parameters are constantly changing, being able to track declaration progress in real time, estimate customs duties and centralize operations on a single tool allows you to gain agility and reduce error risks.

Customeo, the digital customs clearance platform developed by Derudder, responds to these challenges. It covers more than 150 customs offices in France and Europe, across 7 countries (France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Estonia). All types of operations are handled: import, export, T1 transit, clearance, T2L and CCS. With real-time status tracking, integrated duty estimates and direct chat with declarants, Customeo allows you to maintain control over your customs operations, even in a fully changing market.